Layer 01 — Intelligence
Most tourism decisions are made on data that describes the past.
Arrivals, occupancy and spend are lagging indicators published one to two years after the fact. Intelligence is the discipline of measuring intent before it becomes economics.
02 — The lag
Intent is legible now. Arrivals are legible twenty months from now.
Both tracks describe the same demand. Only one of them exists at the moment the budget is set, which is why allocation is argued from the lower track and decided in the interval above it.
03 — Four measurement failures
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04 — The instrument
The desire score is four inputs, weighted and published.
This layer produces the left axis of the Grand Tour Index. Inputs are collected per source market, normalized against the sample set and reported quarterly with the weighting visible, so a ministry can contest a number rather than accept it.
v1 weighting. Published with each quarterly release. Methodology →
05 — Instruments in use
06 — Mandate shape
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07 — Adjacent layers